Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 3.626814 4.339778 5.134092 6.081469 7.177287 8.401509 9.869102
2025-04-13 2.437222 3.342467 4.470720 5.965426 7.876862 10.221110 13.293047
2025-04-20 1.917792 2.951248 4.364906 6.403222 9.223187 12.937130 18.138236
2025-04-27 1.500516 2.561912 4.138753 6.585409 10.203422 15.258403 22.730981
2025-05-04 1.225411 2.296600 4.008472 6.838770 11.267491 17.767698 27.813387
2025-05-11 0.974445 1.998626 3.753400 6.832319 11.907232 19.695971 32.221201
2025-05-18 0.750385 1.684789 3.399861 6.587939 12.110401 20.950015 35.701109
2025-05-25 0.570501 1.402695 3.037882 6.252941 12.093295 21.820431 38.623464
2025-06-01 0.461368 1.233035 2.845794 6.179275 12.492751 23.376205 42.742966
2025-06-08 0.374865 1.087691 2.669597 6.099616 12.857176 24.887108 46.890670
2025-06-15 0.338031 1.049362 2.706732 6.440789 14.030523 27.887117 53.779769
2025-06-22 0.287159 0.960442 2.614740 6.498956 14.660856 29.964585 59.210579
2025-06-29 0.239603 0.868058 2.501469 6.505544 15.213165 31.991540 64.795333
2025-07-06 0.198342 0.780184 2.381239 6.479121 15.698910 33.946074 70.423358
2025-07-13 0.186890 0.781135 2.485750 6.986473 17.361174 38.286823 80.778061
2025-07-20 0.164564 0.738676 2.467067 7.196642 18.404416 41.500537 89.232651
2025-07-27 0.147556 0.708662 2.476096 7.475336 19.626647 45.161798 98.784746
2025-08-03 0.124410 0.646610 2.379627 7.470179 20.203480 47.555644 106.028316
2025-08-10 0.098772 0.562678 2.196955 7.206666 20.146103 48.626377 110.720630
2025-08-17 0.076108 0.479079 1.992335 6.844601 19.803870 49.055937 114.136736
2025-08-24 0.062893 0.431701 1.894240 6.764984 20.141452 50.971163 120.712651
2025-08-31 0.051851 0.388741 1.799770 6.678822 20.450091 52.841496 127.308160
2025-09-07 0.048573 0.386250 1.852431 7.047894 21.974446 57.545494 140.172432